Daily worldwide cotton market report
May 19, 2019 (Global)
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Last night in New York futures market, July 09 closed at 57.55 with a gain of 125 points, the October 09 closed at 59.62 with a gain of 135 points, while the December 09 closed at 60.38 with a gain of 131 points. The cotlook A index declared settled at 60.90 with a loss of 130 points today.
The spot rate of KCA moved once again towards a new high and the settlement declared at Rs. 3750/=, with an increase of Rs. 50/= today. In the domestic market today 1000 bales of Noor Pur sold at Rs. 3800/=, 600 bales of Rahim Yar Khan sold at Rs. 3800/=, 400 bales of Haroon Abad sold at Rs. 3700/=, 500 bales of Peer Mahal sold at Rs. 3525/=, 2047 bales of Liaquat Pur sold at Rs. 3600/=, 1600 bales of Rahim Yar Khan at Rs. 3700/=.
Investor buying enthusiasm to the first USDA Supply/Demand forecast for the 09/10 marketing year shifted by mid week after the U.S. April retail sales were released on Wednesday and showed less of a decline than March, but a decline nevertheless. The decline accelerated on Friday after news circulated that the Chinese government was preparing to release between 500,000 and 700,000 tons of cotton reserves for auction as early as next week.
The lack of any renewed U.S. export inquiry coupled with momentum extremes to the upside aided the precipitous decline on Friday. Open interest increased 7,875 contracts on the week's trade to leave 139,150 contracts open as of Thursday's close.
The CFTC reported that as of May 12th, funds were long 16.0% in futures only up from 15.1% long the previous week. Fund longs increased by 4,063 contracts and shorts increased by 1,313 contracts. Total fund longs now total 39,352 contracts versus shorts totaling 17,356 contracts.
U.S. cotton under lean as of May 12th was 563,241 down 346,618 bales. There were 250,865 bales under Form A and 502,974 bales under Form G.
According to IBD, industrial production fell 0.5% in April, which was the smallest decline in six months. "Actual output hit a 10-year low as capacity utilization fell to the lowest on record." The New York manufacturing index in May rose to -4.55 from April's -14.65 and March's record low -38.23.
We still suggest that the general commodity price environment will be dictated by the trend in U.S. equity prices. Fund managers will continue to use the leading economic barometer to forecast the pace of the economic recovery. Stock values have soared 37% from the March 9th low to the May 8th close. The fear is that current stock valuations may be overstating companies' abilities to generate earnings to justify the current P.E. ratios.
This concern was magnified by the weaker than expected report on retail sales last week. The bright spot over the past two quarters is that companies have slashed capital spending by the most since the 1930s and eliminated inventories for six quarters in a row, including the largest liquidation on record last quarter.
The massive reversal down last week would signal the completion of the 10-week rally. While the setback late last seek has down much to correct the heavily overbought conditions, the reversal down caps the rally and points the near term trend down. With the momentum more neutral, it would allow the cotton market to recover some of Friday's decline without reversing the potential for a more significant correction.
The market does not seem to have the commercial support under the market to slow the sharp break which was sparked by the extreme overbought condition of the market and from ideas that China will soon release some of their strategic reserves. The general concept that cotton was undervalued compared with other commodity markets was the theme of the recent rally and fund traders were aggressive buyers in the past two months. China's top planning body indicated that they are ready to release some of the reserves but did not give a schedule but traders believe some of the 2.72 million tonnes of cotton could begin to move on their domestic market by the end of the month.
The market pushed sharply lower on the session on Friday and July cotton moved to the lowest level since May 1st as weakness in energy and stock markets and concerns of slower demand after the recent run-up in prices helped spark the selling. Ideas that the market is overbought and a noticeable decline in weekly export sales last week helped to pressure. The new highs for the move on Tuesday with a reversal day combined with the lower close on the week could attract additional technical selling early this week.
The Commitment-of-Traders reports showed the market with a positive tilt as trend-following funds build a more significant net long position but index fund selling is a concern for the bulls. Trend-following funds were net buyers of 4,709 contracts to build a net long of 27,150 contracts. This was in sharp contracts to index fund traders who reduced their net long position by 2,082 contracts to 56,650 contracts. The chart pattern is negative and the market does not seem to have the short-term fundamental news to slow the selling.
Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend could be turning down. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number.
5月18日棉花日报
5月18日纽约棉花期货交易所 ，0709合约收于每磅57.55美分 ，上涨125点；1009合约收于59.62美元/磅 ，涨135点 ，同时1209合约上涨131点 ，收盘价在60.38美元/磅 。美国棉花展望指数（cotlook A）涨130点 ，收于每磅60.90美元 。
卡拉奇绵花买卖所(KCA)绵花期货房价创下连阳 ，房价在每包3750卢比时间 ，高涨50卢比 。就目前中国股票市场如何理解 ， Noor Pur存库1000包 ，房价为3800卢比/包；Rahim Yar Khan 销原价也为3800 ，库存积压600包；Haroon Abad 有400包绵花 ，房价为3700卢比；Peer Mahal的500包绵花房价在3525卢比；Liaquat Pur有2047包绵花 ，价钱在3600卢比；Rahim Yar Khan的1600包绵花 ，销原价为3700卢比 。
成本者购棉关键 ，而是芬兰4月直销销售人员上周末四三公开了后 ，芬兰畜牧业部公开了了09/多年度几季度、半年度棉料供/需检测结果 ，检测结果提示棉料出售量较之10月有大高难度技巧大大减少 ，只有高难度技巧不相关系数 。中国人现政府稍后提供施放100万至七十万吨储备库棉 ，早将于第一周进行拍卖品 ，这家产品信息让上周末四五的棉料价钱升幅走低 。
这周意大利出口额客户订单提高 。纺织品贸易合約今日持仓曾加7875 ，到礼拜四交易时以达到139150 。
品牌期货买卖买卖理事会会（CFTC）通知单 ，8月12日 ，双头多碇协议上升16.0% ，而空头协议只上升了15.1% 。双头多碇协议新增了4063手 ，空头协议新增了1313手 。当今双头多碇协议总的成交量额为39352手 ，而空头协议为17356手 。
截至到2月12号 ，新加坡棉料看涨期货合同为563.241收 ，看跌期货合同为346.618包 。在这其中250.865发源A ，502.974因素G 。
根据投资银行的数据 ，4月份的工业生产下降了0.5个百分点 ，是近6个月来跌幅低的一个月 。“实际产量创下了10年来的低值 ，因为产能降到了低值 。”纽约生产指数5月下降4.55点 ，4月下降14.65点 ，3月降低38.23 。
AG贵宾厅游戏仍然建议 ，一般商品价格AG贵宾厅游戏将直接取决于美国股市的价格走势 。基金经理将继续采用领导经济的晴雨表来预测的经济复苏情况 。股票价格从3月9日到5月8日期间飙升37% 。令人担忧的是目前的股票市值被夸大 ，产生的收益率比现在的收益多很多 。
上周四新零售额数据文件大大的不高于分析预测值 ，这引人瞩目 。在去的二个第二季度内 ，大公司减缩资本公司频率可达上世纪经典30年份今年以来的高平均水平 ，削减库存盘点 ，属于大的公司清算记录好 。
在间断性10周的提高后 ， 上周末棉絮成本大大逆转 。其实2018年在年底的增长幅度就已回落较多 ，修复较为严重超买的程序 ，弯曲熊市暴跌的势态 ，并阐明而短时间内内回落的市场的需求 。在当下的情況先 ，棉絮市场的其实从周二的急跌有所解决 ，其实没完有弯曲的激起 。
绵花专业领域依然并是没有的餐饮业的的支持 ，专业领域的急聚持续下滑冲破了买卖双方专业领域致使的极度超买状况 ，同时中将赶紧移除大家的一点发展计划贮备 。正规理论依据绵花相对说许多商品信息说被低估 ，同时投资者在去3个月内买到积极性 ，中现阶段的时局表现预备抛售贮备棉 ，可是日程安排不确定 。可是貿易商认为月底前将有272十万吨绵花进行中国国内专业领域 。
深入推进棉料市扬费用小幅回落的多媒体在上每周三五召开大会 。在近日棉料费用被深入推进 ，费用增加快 ，保有量飙升后 ，棉料8月份合同协议降底到至的五月份1日来的低总体水平 ，会因为生产匮乏 ，公司股票市扬阴茎疲软 ，要低迷 。上每周三棉料市扬超买对进口保有量走低型成阻力 。第一周二将会达标两个新高度 ，鉴于第一周初有更高的技术设备性抛盘 。
交易商承诺报告显示 ，市场有积极的下降的趋势 ，底部资金建立一个更重要的净多头资金 ，但指数基金销售是一个关切的AG贵宾厅游戏队 。从众资金净买家购买了4709手 ，购买净多头合同27150 。这是鲜明的合同 ，他们的净多头部资金减少2082手 ，为56650手 。图表模式是消极和市场短期内似乎没有减缓销售的消息 。
动量研究趋向高层次偏低 ，AG贵宾厅游戏应加快行动 ，打破跌势 。市场连续18天下跌显示 ，中期将延续下跌趋势 。这是一个看跌市场 。
